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Country Economic Forecasts > Chile

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

After a rebound in Q3, economic activity faltered again in October, according to the central bank's GDP-proxy. The index showed the economy contracting by 0.4% y/y - the worst result since 2009. And what is more disappointing, the non-mining index, the main driver of growth over the last year, registered its smallest gain since 2010. While it is true that a significant part of the poor performance was down to temporary industry-specific developments and unhelpful calendar effects, the underlying picture was still decidedly lacklustre. Against this backdrop, we have now cut our forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.6% from 1.7% previously.

Looking forward, a reasonable labour market and inflation stabilising at or below 3% should ensure that private consumption continues to provide some impetus to the economy, while the sharp rise in the copper price since early November gives some hope that business investment will start to pick up. We expect that the economy will grow by about 2% in 2017. Meanwhile, if growth continues to disappoint in the short term then there is an increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts in Q1.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Chile

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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