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Country Economic Forecasts > Turkey

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

2016 ended on a sour note for the Turkish economy, contracting for the first time since 2009, falling by 1.8% y/y in Q3. On the back of the weaker-than-expected data, we have revised our growth forecasts, and now expect the economy to have slowed to 2% growth in 2016 and to remain sluggish at 2.4% in 2017 (down from 2.8% and 2.9% in our previous report). Political uncertainty and increasing security threats are also compounding the effects of the weak economic data.

And to unnerve investors even more, the credibility of macro policy has continued to be eroded. The central bank (CBRT) has again come under pressure to keep interest rates low to support the economy despite the likelihood of yet more inflationary pressure from the latest depreciation of the TRY, which has lost almost 10% of its value since the beginning of December. Without strong action by the central bank, we think the TRY will remain weak, falling to 3.8/US$ by year-end.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Turkey

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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