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Thailand Power Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thailand's plan to reduce its reliance on gas-fired power generation will create opportunitiesfor alternatives such as coal and renewables, which poses upside risks to our outlook for the country'senergy related infrastructure. We highlight that lower than expected power consumption over the near termmeans such opportunities will begin to have an impact on infrastructure construction only beyond2017-2018 as projects are delayed until demand picks up. We retain a modest growth forecast for 2015 and2016, with power generation set to grow by 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The largest source of growth in 2016 will be thermal generation, while non-hydropower renewables willbe the fastest growing sub-sector at 11.0%. Meanwhile, the Thai power sector's long-term growth outlookis muted, as the country continues to experience challenges in procuring gas supplies and is clearlymoving towards increasing reliance on electricity imports. We see electricity generation growing at anaverage rate of 3.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Growth will be primarily driven by nonhydropowerrenewable energy generation and coal-fired generation. We see limited scope for expansionin gas-fired generation.- In September 2015, Thailand approved five public-private partnership (PPP) projects worth a total ofabout THB200bn (USD5.5bn) as part of the country's infrastructure development plan from 2015-2020.The projects will be submitted to the cabinet for authorisation in 2015, according to Deputy PrimeMinister Somkid Jatusripitak (InfraPPP World).

The approved projects include development ofBangkok's Metropolitan Rapid Transit (MRT) Pink Line and MRT Yellow Line. The THB56.7bn(USD1.56bn) first elevated train project will connect Kaerai and Min Buri, while the THB54.7bn(USD1.51bn) second project will connect Lat Phrao and Samrong. The government also approved theTHB82.4bn (USD2.27bn) Blue Line extension, which will connect Bang Sue and Bang Khae. Thepreferred bidder will be required to operate and maintain the extension. The other two projects are theTHB4.14bn (USD114mn) Nonthaburi waste-to-energy project and the THB2.25bn (USD62mn) NakhonRatchasima waste-to-energy facility.- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda with the ambitious 'Alternative EnergyDevelopment Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states 25% of total energy consumption must be derived fromalternative energy sources by 2021. It targets 2 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, 1.2GW of windcapacity and 3.63GW of biomass capacity within that timeframe.

Table Of Contents

Thailand Power Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Thailand Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Thailand Power Forecast Scenario 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 24
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Transmission And Distribution 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Asia Risk/Reward Index 27
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 31
Thailand Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 32
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Regulation And Competition 33
Sustainable Energy Policies 34
Pricing 35
Thailand Power Projects Database 36
Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type 37
Competitive Landscape 39
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 40
Glow Energy 41
CLP/EGCO 41
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company (RATCH) 42
Independent Power (Thailand) 43
Regional Overview 44
Table: China Power Snapshot 47
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55

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