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Country Economic Forecasts > Afghanistan

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 2 pages

The political and security situation remains concerning. The Taliban, which still rejects all peace talks, continues to advance with at least two provincial capitals being besieged as well as having an increasing presence in Kabul. At the same time, ISIS continues to make its presence felt, there has been a marked deterioration in relations with neighbouring Pakistan and on the domestic political front, decision-making has become paralysed with no agreement on political and security strategy.

Nevertheless, anecdotal evidence suggests that activity and confidence held up fairly well in H1 and together with a harvest at least as good as last year should support modest growth of 2% in 2016. Prospects for rising growth thereafter are predicated on some improvement in the political and security situation, continued commitment to macroeconomic stability and structural reform, as well as promised donor support being forthcoming.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Afghanistan
Afghanistanand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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