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Country Economic Forecasts > Algeria

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Economic growth remains constrained by low oil revenues, a challenging business environment and lower government spending. GDP growth is forecast to slow from an estimated 3.2% in 2016 to 2.3% in 2017. The non-oil sector is anticipated to remain weak due to high unemployment, crowded-out private sector investment and bureaucratic hurdles. Capital spending is unlikely to return to historically high levels, resulting in a further slowdown in growth to 2.2% in 2018-20.

The current account deficit is forecast to remain wide and, coupled with limited foreign investment inflows and low foreign debt, we expect foreign reserves will continue to fall in the near term. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow in 2017 as the government seeks to contain expenditure and exploit the proposed tax rate increases. However, the fiscal position remains at risk as the government drags its feet in reform implementation. 



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Algeria
Algeriaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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