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Country Economic Forecasts > Algeria

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Economic growth remains highly constrained by low oil revenues, a challenging business environment and lower government spending. GDP growth is forecast to slow from 3.8% in 2015 to 3.3% this year, primarily due to a contraction in the hydrocarbon sector, with a further slowdown to 2.4% in 2017 and then slightly below this in 2018-19 due to fiscal constraint.

With the current account deficit seen rising to over 18% of GDP this year and then falling only slowly over the medium term, foreign reserves will deteriorate even further given weak levels of FDI. Furthermore, the government is reluctant to contract foreign debt and will need to find alternative ways to finance the external shortfall. With reserves falling rapidly, we expect the external debt/GDP ratio to rise over the medium-term. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit is also seen climbing to over 18% of GDP this year due to lower oil revenues and it is expected to fall only gradually in the coming years.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Algeria
Algeriaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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