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Country Economic Forecasts > Argentina

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

When the GDP-proxy, EMAE, showed the economy growing for the first time in five months in August, we thought the worst of the recession seemed to be over. But the improvement was short-lived, with activity dropping by 0.8% m/m in September - taking the year-on-year drop to -4%.  As a result, we now expect the economy to contract by 2.3% in 2016, down from -1.2% last month.

But although we also expect a less marked rebound in 2017, there are some 'green shoots' emerging.  The most important are signs of recovery in the labour market. And, coupled with a likely deceleration in inflation and a boost in salaries set to take place after the next bargaining round, consumer spending should gain some traction. Also, the expected economic recovery in Brazil and the better harvest season should boost the country's trade sector. Finally, the economic reforms should start to spur an increase in foreign investment. Overall, we expect the economy to expand by 2.6% next year.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Argentina
Argentinaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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