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Country Economic Forecasts > Australia

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

The most recent activity data support our view that the economy went through a soft patch in Q3, with real retail turnover falling 0.1% q/q and the PMI surveys showing modest declines in August and September. Uncertainty over the direction of US policy following the election of Donald Trump will also weigh on growth in the near term. The strong start to the year means we still expect GDP growth of 2.9% this year, but we have downgraded next year to 2.4%.

The RBA held the policy rate at 1.5% at its November meeting. The Board noted the increased uncertainty in the international outlook and the ongoing transition of the economy to the end of the mining boom. But it was somewhat more positive on the outlook for the economy, and expects it to grow at around trend pace in the near future. Given this assessment we expect the policy rate to remain on hold until H1 2018, when GDP growth is set to outstrip potential and inflation pressures will begin to build. We expect rate normalisation to occur gradually, finishing in the early 2020s.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Australia
Australiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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