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Country Economic Forecasts > Azerbaijan

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP fell by 3.9% on the year in January-September this year, with non-oil GDP falling by an even larger 6.1% over the same period. Sharply lower commodity prices and rising inflation have hit export revenues and private consumption. Furthermore, tighter fiscal policy saw capital spending falling 30% in January-September. Oil and gas condensate production edged down by 0.3% in this period, although natural gas production rose by 3.8%. Inflation rose to 14.3% in September, its highest since December 2008, as the weak AZN fed through into a 4% monthly surge in food prices.

We now expect GDP to contract by about 3% this year, before a return to growth of 1.2% in 2017, just above official projections of 1%. Activity will benefit from further rises in oil and gas prices and from lower inflation and interest rates. But lower oil output, fiscal tightness, weak economic confidence and damaged bank balance sheets will restrain any pick-up.




Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Azerbaijan
Azerbaijanand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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