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Country Economic Forecasts > Bahrain

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

There is no GDP data for H2 2016 yet, but there is evidence that non-oil activity remained resilient despite low oil prices. This mainly reflects a buoyant projects market, in contrast to the rest of the GCC, due to a surge in GCC funding. But we still expect non-oil growth to fall back a little further in 2017, to 2.3% from about 3% in 2016, with GDP growth seen slowing to 1.6% from an estimated 3% in 2016. This reflects a combination of increased fiscal austerity, tighter financial conditions and spillovers from the slowdown in Saudi Arabia.

The pace of fiscal consolidation in Bahrain has been modest compared with its GCC peers, so as a result it will have the second-largest budget deficit in the GCC (after Oman) at some 14% of GDP in 2016. At the same time, lower oil exports will widen the current account deficit to a forecast 4.4% of GDP in 2016. With capital outflows rising and foreign reserves falling, the risk of further weakening of the external finances brought another credit rating downgrade from S&P in December to BB-, moving Bahrain further into 'junk' territory.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bahrain
Bahrainand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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