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Country Economic Forecasts > Belarus

  • April 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages


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After a GDP decline of 2.8% in 2016, the government is relying on restoration of favourable trade terms with Russia to revive growth, exports and currency stability to try to avoid the deeper structural and political reform needed to boost productivity or re-open IMF assistance. Ongoing difficulty in restoring cheap energy supplies leaves some uncertainty over the financing of the wide external deficit and mounting foreign debt repayments in 2017-18, with a risk of renewed slowdown, BYR weakness and sustained double-digit inflation if bilateral credit lines close. We still forecast GDP growth of just 0.8% this year and then only 1-2% a year in 2018-20.

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