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Country Economic Forecasts > Belgium

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Economic reforms implemented in 2015 and this year are slowly starting to bear fruit. In terms of competitiveness, Belgium climbed two places to 15th in the Global Entrepreneurship Index for 2017. Thanks to this improvement, due to a reduction in labour costs, Belgian exports will continue to post solid growth. Meanwhile, lower wage costs have helped the recovery in the labour market, with the unemployment rate in Q3 falling to its lowest since 2012. Meanwhile, the investment outlook remains positive with capacity utilisation and bank lending flows to non-financial corporation rising to five-year highs in Q3 and then October.

We have left our GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.2% this year, rising to 1.5% in 2017. Looking ahead, high public debt levels continue to pose downside risks to the outlook. Similar to the EC, we think there is a risk that the government will miss its budget deficit target this year, leading to a need for further fiscal adjustment going forward, which may weigh on growth in 2018-19.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Belgium
Belgiumand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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