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Country Economic Forecasts > Bolivia

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Bolivia's economy is still growing at a healthy pace so far this year. During H1 2016, GDP expanded by 4% year-on-year, despite subdued demand from the key export markets of Brazil and Argentina and low commodity prices.

Bolivia has managed to largely withstand the regional economic downturn of recent years, thanks to buoyant domestic demand and strong expansion in the extraction industries (mostly gas and minerals) before 2015. But falling export volumes this year and low commodity prices are posing challenges to the resource-dependent economy. GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.8% in 2016, roughly in line with the IMF's latest projection (3.7%). And we estimate that both the current account and the fiscal balance will record substantial deficits in 2016.

Looking forward, the expected gradual recovery in global commodity markets over the coming years should help the Bolivian economy to grow by around 4% pa in 2017-19.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bolivia
Boliviaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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