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Poland Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 131 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have recently downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing anycontribution in growth from shale gas. The slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the comingyears, tempering the development of below-ground understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulicfracturing processes required for Poland's challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration anddevelopments will slowly boost gas production over our forecast period.The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:

- We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growthfrom shale gas. Exploration for unconventional gas in Poland has come to a near standstill and is unlikelyto pick up within the next few years. Only four shale gas exploration wells have been drilled in 2015,down from a high of 24 well in 2012 and brining the total number of shale gas exploration well in Polandto 72 wells since 2010.

Table Of Contents

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Oil 11
Gas 13
An Improved Above-Ground Environment 14
Shale Exploration Grinds To A Halt 17
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licences 18
Upstream Projects 22
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects 22
Upstream Production - Oil 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2014-2019) 25
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2020-2025) 25
Upstream Production - Gas 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trend 26
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2014-2019) 29
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2020-2025) 29
Refining 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2020-2025) 32
Refined Fuels Consumption 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2020-2025) 35
Gas Consumption 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) 39
Trade - Oil 39
Crude Oil 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2014-2020) 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports Over Coming Years 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 49
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 49
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 49
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 50
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 51
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 53
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 55
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Poland - Risk/Reward Index 58
Poland Upstream Index - Rewards 58
Poland Upstream Index - Risks 58
Poland Downstream Index - Overview 59
Market Overview 60
Poland Energy Market Overview 60
Overview/State Role 60
Fiscal And Licensing Regime Up To 2016 60
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime 60
Shale Gas Licensing, Regulation And Taxation 61
Licensing Rounds 65
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 66
Oil Refineries 66
Table: Downstream Projects 66
Service Stations 66
Oil Terminals/Ports 66
Oil Pipelines 67
LNG Terminals 70
Gas Storage Facilities 71
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland 71
Gas Pipelines 71
Competitive Landscape 74
Competitive Landscape Summary 74
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector 75
Table: Key Upstream Player 76
Table: Key Downstream Players 76
Company Profile 77
PKN Orlen 77
Grupa Lotos 85
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) 91
PERN 99
BP Polska 103
Shell Polska 105
FX Energy 107
Other Summaries 111
Regional Overview 116
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 116
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 116
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 117
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 118
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 119
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 120
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 121
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 122
Glossary 124
Table: Glossary Of Terms 124
Methodology 126
Industry Forecast Methodology 126
Source 128
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 128
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 130
Table: Weighting 131

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