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Country Economic Forecasts > Bosnia And Herzegovina

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

A narrowing trade deficit as exports revive will keep 2016 growth close to 3% despite a H1 drop in public investment. A new EUR550m IMF package for 2016-19 approved in September ensures financing for the external deficit and the still-fragile budget, and will maintain the external pressure needed for public sector reform and administrative improvement. The IMF deal will unlock other multilateral funding to tackle the infrastructure deficit, and underpins the stable exchange rate that will keep inflation low despite higher energy costs in 2017.

Short-term risks remain on the downside as the three governments bargain over allocation of new IMF/EU assistance, and resist concession of power to other constituent groups. Risks turn to neutral, and may become positive in the longer term, if IMF conditions and EU accession demands are used to rectify underlying constitutional and business environment problems.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bosnia And Herzegovina
Bosniaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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