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Country Economic Forecasts > Bosnia And Herzegovina

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP growth reached 3.2% in 2015, and we forecast rates of about 3% through to 2019 as the current export-led recovery encourages an investment upturn and higher infrastructure spending. Persistent budget and current account deficits leave recovery dependent on large IMF/World Bank funds and EU aid, but these appear intact after agreement on IMF conditions paved the way for approval of a new three-year EUR550m extended fund facility by year-end.

Steady medium-term recovery is underpinned by multilateral commitments to political stability and commercial reconstruction, with EU- and IMF-imposed conditions forcing policymakers to improve the business environment. This is expected to lead to a gradual pick-up in FDI, focused on privatisation, provided the new IMF deal is finalised and stays on track (alongside EU accession talks) in 2017-18. But risks to the forecast remain on the downside due to political tensions preventing the reduction of bureaucracy and corruption and delaying reforms. Bargaining over IMF terms showed the three entities still resisting centralisation, and the long-delayed 2013 census results - showing Bosniaks now in a majority - have reopened disputes over internal power sharing.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bosnia And Herzegovina

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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