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Country Economic Forecasts > Brazil

  • March 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 14 pages


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We have made important changes to the baseline forecast for Brazil this month. The GDP growth forecast for 2017 has been cut to just 0.1% on the back of a very weak Q4, but we have upgraded the estimate for 2018 to 2.9%. We now expect the central bank (BCB) to be more aggressive and deliver two rate cuts of 100bp each in April and May, taking the Selic rate to 9.25% by year-end. In addition, we have lowered our end-2017 forecast for inflation to 4.2% and now think the Brazilian real (BRL) will trade around the 3.05-3.15/$ range this year.

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