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Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

The flash estimate for Q3 2016 shows that Bulgarian GDP grew 0.8% on the quarter, well above the overall EU quarterly rise of 0.4%. As a result, we have raised our forecast of 2016 GDP growth to 3.4% (from 2.9% previously), but the average for 2017-19 has been lowered to 2.4%. There is no breakdown of GDP for Q3 yet, but improvement in net trade and strong private consumption were the largest drivers of growth in H1 2016. Private consumption overtook exports as the largest contributor to growth in 2015 due to continued improvements in the labour market.

However, this trend growth of consumer spending is likely to slow over the medium term as the improvement in the labour market slows and the economy begins to show weaker demand from its increasingly ageing population. And downside risks continue to stem from external conditions - prolonged economic uncertainty or a slowdown in trade within in the EU or in Turkey would hurt Bulgarian exports, a key driver of growth.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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