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Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

The labor market in Bulgaria continued to tighten in 2016. November's unemployment rate of 7.1% was the lowest since early 2009. This is sufficiently low relative to the composition and skills of the available workforce that it has led to strong upward pressure on wages. We estimate that real wages grew by over 7% y/y in 2016, helping to buoy consumer spending. However, the background for consumption is likely to be less favorable this year as inflation picks up and the labor market loses momentum.

Fixed investment continued to decline in Q3 2016 and is forecast to have fallen by 0.5% in 2016 as a whole. However, we see this trend reversing in 2017, conditional on a smooth transition to the new programming period for EU funds. Overall, we expect GDP growth to average 2.9% this year after an estimated expansion of 3.4% in 2016.

However, there are several downside risks to growth. Domestically, a slowing in the labor market or inefficiencies in the absorption of EU-funds would threaten domestic demand and the fiscal position, while the uncertain political situation could dampen investment. And, externally, a slowdown in the EU or Turkey would curb exports, a key driver of the economy.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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