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Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

We continue to forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2016, down marginally from 3% in 2015. This slight decline in real GDP growth will reflect weak investment and less of a boost from net trade. Looking forward, the economy is expected to be supported by a steady expansion in consumer spending but export volumes are expected to grow by less than 3% a year throughout 2016-18 (a weaker trend than in 2011-15). As a result, we expect GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2017.

The first-round vote of the presidential election takes place on 6 November. Prime Minister Borisov has said recently that he would resign if the ruling center-right GERB candidate, Tsetska Tsacheva, loses the election. Tsacheva's main opposition comes from Socialist party BSP candidate Ruman Radev, who has said he aims to increase military spending and work to lift EU sanctions against Russia.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Bulgaria

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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