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Country Economic Forecasts > Cambodia

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Strong exports, investment and public spending in H1 have kept GDP on track for another rise of almost 7% this year, with slightly better outturns in prospect for 2017-19. Inflation has picked up modestly but remains below 3%, as faster wage growth prompts exporters to boost productivity, helped by ongoing FDI and improved domestic credit availability. FDI remains focused on textiles but is starting to spread down the supply chain and to other sectors, with China now the fastest-growing source. China's deepening involvement, highlighted by new agreements during its president's October visit, underpins medium-term investment prospects, but could strain relations with neighbouring countries.

But ahead of the 2018 elections, risks arise from possible back-sliding from the 2014 pledge to strengthen democracy and human rights, a weakness that poses a threat to continued EU and US aid. There are also risks from possible Chinese slowdown, ongoing rural discontent over land rights, the need for faster KHR depreciation bringing higher inflation if FDI slows down, and possible US backtracking over adding Cambodia to the Trans-Pacific Partnership.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Cambodia
Cambodiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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