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Country Economic Forecasts > Canada

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Real GDP probably grew by 3-3.5% annualized in Q3 after contracting 1.6% in Q2 in the wake of the Alberta wildfires. However, much of the rebound is attributable to normalizing energy sector activity. Disappointingly, activity outside the energy sector remains fairly sluggish.

Looking ahead, although Canada's growth trajectory has been weak and uneven this year, we expect that it will slowly strengthen and firm in 2017. Gradually improving non-energy activity, a reduced drag from the energy sector, low interest rates and loosening fiscal policy will lead to real GDP growth accelerating from 1.2% this year to 1.7% in 2017.

We think the outlook for Canada's economy is slightly weaker in the wake of Mr. Trump's presidential election victory. Given the prevailing and persistent risks, we believe it is more likely that Canadian policy makers will pursue an even more expansionary fiscal policy, rather than looser monetary policy, if GDP growth disappoints. However, for the time being, we think the chance of any new, major spending package is fairly low.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Canada
Canadaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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