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Country Economic Forecasts > China

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

Economic growth momentum in China held steady in November, with goods export volumes rising significantly again and real retail sales growth picking up. Meanwhile, overall FAI growth slowed to 8.3%, in part reflecting weaker real estate activity after the introduction of housing purchase restrictions in October. But the continued acceleration in the PPI, rising by 3.3% year-on-year in November, is supporting nominal sales revenue and profit growth for industrial enterprises. This is boosting FAI in manufacturing which grew at the fastest pace recorded in twelve months.

On current trends China can comfortably meet the target of at least 6.5% growth this year - we expect 6.7%. But the outlook for next year is more uncertain, with Mr. Trump's election creating challenges in particular for China's export outlook. Meanwhile, a sharply strengthening US$ is putting pressure on the CNY and could accelerate FX capital outflows. Domestically, pressures on growth could re-emerge as well. Weaker housing sales could dampen real estate investment growth. And the current pace of credit growth remains unsustainable.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > China

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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