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Country Economic Forecasts > China

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 11 pages

Overall economic growth held up in October, with investment momentum (FAI) picking up somewhat, in part because of still solid real estate activity. Rising output prices in industry will continue to boost nominal sales revenue and profit growth and reduce industrial enterprises' need for external financing. However, while exports improved somewhat in October they remain unconvincing and household consumption showed signs of slowing.

Looking ahead, the export outlook remains modest, given global demand prospects, while real estate investment is likely to be affected by the recent policy measures to slow fast gains in house prices. However, corporate investment - notably, private investment - has probably bottomed out for now. On current trends China can comfortably meet the target of at least 6.5% GDP growth this year - we expect 6.7%.

The outlook for next year depends a lot on the extent to which the authorities will maintain credit growth. The Trump win creates more uncertainty and challenges for China as a shift in US policy on globalisation and free trade will have repercussions for China's exports. Furthermore, a rapidly strengthening US$ amid firmer expectations of US interest rate rises is increasing the pressure on the CNY.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > China
Chinaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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