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Country Economic Forecasts > China

  • February 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 13 pages

China entered 2017 with decent growth momentum as real GDP growth edged up to 6.8% in Q4. This brought growth for 2016 as a whole to 6.7%, comfortably exceeding the government's "bottom line" of the 6.5-7% target range. Household consumption remained robust last year supported by still solid disposable income growth and fiscal easing measures. Solid import volume growth also highlights the robustness of domestic demand.

However, continued fast growth last year was achieved at the cost of a further rise in leverage. Overall credit including local government bond issuance grew 16.1% in 2016 and overall debt reached around 265% of GDP. Indeed, recent statements suggest policymakers are moving to place somewhat more emphasis on reducing financial risk and less on ensuring at least 6.5% growth. In addition, we expect the tightening of housing purchase restrictions in many large cities to weigh on real estate investment growth. Meanwhile, China's exports to the US will face a harsher climate under the Trump administration. Overall, we expect GDP growth to slow to 6.3% in 2017.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > China

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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