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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 100 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have strongly reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan this quarter on the backof increasingly limited export options for the country: Russia and Iran are curtailing imports and Chinesegas intakes will grow at a slower pace than expected on the back of slowing economic growth. This leavesTurkmenistan increasingly dependent on China, with little credible export market alternatives over theshort-to-medium term.

-A renewed emphasis on international investment, along with developments by Turkmennebit, has leadto a slow but progressive increase in oil production. This will endure over the coming years. Largerproduction growth within our forecast period, however, is unlikely until a sustainable agreement isreached between Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on the Caspian maritime border dispute.

-The difficult business environment could, however, dissuade international investors, notably at a time ofcapital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA DeutscheErdoel is reportedly planning to relinquish its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 overfrustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.

Table Of Contents

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Central And Eastern Europe - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Regional Risk/Reward Index Averages - High Risk, Low Reward In Central And Eastern Europe 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 44
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 45
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 49
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index 52
Market Overview 54
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview 54
Overview/State Role 56
Licensing And Regulation 57
Government Policy 57
International Energy Relations 57
Table: Upstream Projects 59
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 60
Oil Refineries 60
Oil Storage Facilities 61
Oil Terminals/Ports 62
Oil Pipelines 62
Gas Pipelines 62
Table: TAPI Timeline 68
Competitive Landscape 71
Competitive Landscape 71
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 72
Table: Key Upstream Players 72
Table: Downstream Players 72
Company Profile 73
Eni 73
ENOC/Dragon Oil 77
Other Summaries 82
Regional Overview 85
Central And Eastern Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 85
Oil Production: Output Growth Stalling 85
Oil Consumption: Weak EM Growth Softens Demand 86
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Growth 87
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Depends On China's Hunger 88
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 89
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 90
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Oil And Gas Production And Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 91
Glossary 93
Table: Glossary Of Terms 93
Methodology 95
Industry Forecast Methodology 95
Source 97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 97
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 99
Table: Weighting 100

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