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Country Economic Forecasts > Croatia

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP rose by 1.7% on the quarter in Q3, exceeding expectations. The strong expansion was a result of both robust domestic demand and a positive contribution from net trade. Growth in services exports, up 7.4% on the year due to strong tourism, boosted the headline number. As a result of the Q3 result, we have raised our growth forecasts to 2.6% this year and 2.5% in 2017 (from 1.9% and 1.8% respectively last month).

Household spending rose 3.4% on the year in Q3 as consumers continued to benefit from a number of tailwinds; specifically, the unemployment rate has fallen to 14.2% in October (from 16.2% at the start of the year) and the country is still stuck in deflation. We forecast private consumption growth of 2.6% in 2016, followed by a slightly lower 2.3% in 2017. While we expect inflation to rise to 1.6% next year, a generous tax package announced by the new coalition government should counter the hit to real purchasing power from rising prices.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Croatia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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