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Country Economic Forecasts > Croatia

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Following a relatively strong Q2 economic performance, latest monthly indicators point to a continuation of a 0.5% quarterly pace of GDP growth in H2. This means that GDP is now forecast to expand by 1.9% this year, a slight upgrade from 1.8% last month. However, this is still below the consensus forecast and due to a probable record summer tourism season as well as strong momentum in household consumption, risks are tilted to the upside.

Meanwhile, the political gridlock in the country has finally come to an end. After a very short-lived government marred by political infighting and inefficiency failed a vote of confidence in June, September elections yielded a repeat of November 2015 results: a coalition between the HDZ and the Bridge party, but with a moderate premier, Andrej Plenkovic. The likely period of political stability ahead bodes well for investor sentiment and fiscal prudence.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Croatia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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