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Country Economic Forecasts > Czech Republic

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

The breakdown of Q2 GDP showed that the strong 0.9% quarterly growth was supported primarily by net trade. Exports rose by 0.9% on the quarter, but imports fell 0.6% so the strong Q2 growth result came mainly from lower imports. And private consumption rose by just 0.1% on the quarter, much weaker than expected. But looking ahead, the fact that the labour market remains in good health should provide support for household spending in H2.

We now see GDP growth of 2.4% this year, followed by a slight deceleration to 2.3% in 2017 as household spending growth slows on the back of rising inflation.

Despite renewed appreciation pressure on the CZK this month, in our view the exchange rate floor of CZK27/EUR1 will not be terminated until towards the end of 2017. So rates are likely to be kept on hold over the medium term, although further cuts are possible if capital inflows persist.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Czech Republic
Czech Republicand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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