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Country Economic Forecasts > Czech Republic

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Inflation was close to 2% in December, reaching the central bank target six months earlier than it expected in its Q4 Inflation Report. Nevertheless, we see the CNB dropping the CZK27/EUR1 currency floor only towards the end of Q2 this year, thus respecting its mid-2017 "soft" time commitment. The central bank will want to see that the inflation uptick is sustainable and, although its FX intervention has intensified since the end of 2016, the size of its balance sheet as a share of GDP is still manageable.

The economy has picked up after a temporary lull in Q3. Survey and hard data both reinforce our view that growth picked up at end-2016 - we see quarterly expansion at 0.5% in Q4, implying GDP growth of 2.4% in 2016 as a whole. And we forecast similar growth for 2017. Despite temporarily weak fixed investment due to the cyclicality of EU funds, the overall macro picture remains solid. The main upside risks to our growth forecast are a stronger investment rebound and resilient private consumption (growth of which we expect to slow slightly in 2017). The main downside risks are a European economic downturn and a stronger-than-expected hit from CZK appreciation as the CNB abandons the euro peg.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Czech Republic
Czech Republicand#58;

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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