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Country Economic Forecasts > Dominican Republic

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Economic activity continues to expand at a rate above potential, although recent data suggest that the pace of growth has moderated somewhat. Notwithstanding strong domestic fundamentals, we believe that external conditions will weigh on activity, dampening growth to 5.9% this year and 4.5% in 2017.

Inflation remains well below the 4% +/-1% target, at just 0.9% in October, with falling food prices dampening the headline rate in recent months. Going forward, we expect inflation to move back inside the target range, reflecting both the impact of strong economic growth and higher oil prices. Indeed, at its October policy meeting the central bank raised its policy rate by 50bp to 5.50% in order to anchor inflation expectations and limit any currency depreciation caused by likely developments in US interest rates. But the changing nature of US economic policy under Donald Trump's presidency may place further upward pressure on interest rates. Meanwhile, the government also moved to slow its spending in H2 2016 to contain the budget deficit.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Dominican Republic
Dominican Republicand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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