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Country Economic Forecasts > Ecuador

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP shrank 1.9% on the quarter and 3% on the year in Q1 2016, marking the deepest recession since dollarization of the economy in 2000. Yet leading indicators suggest that GDP was falling at a slower pace in Q2, so our 2016 growth forecast is unchanged at -2.1% as a sharp 6.8% contraction in domestic demand is partly offset by a 19% plunge in real imports. But we now see a shallower recovery in 2017, with growth of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% previously, as continued austerity will dampen demand.

Given the sharp fall in domestic demand, we have lowered our inflation forecast to 1.8% for 2016 and 2% in 2017 (from 2.3% and 2.5% previously). But this will not be enough to regain export competitiveness lost due to the strong US dollar. On the other hand, exports are set to rise because of higher oil output and prices, so we now forecast a move back into small current account surplus in 2017 and the following years.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ecuador

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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