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Country Economic Forecasts > Egypt Arab Rep

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The past quarter has seen a number of developments on Egypt's reform agenda, including the liberalisation of the exchange rate. The latter resulted in the final approval of the US$12bn loan from the IMF. These developments will have a number of positive implications for Egypt and as a result we have raised our 2016/17 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% (from 2.7% previously) on the back an improved outlook for export growth and foreign investment.

However, the sharply lower exchange rate will also result in a substantial upward pressure on consumer prices, with inflation now seen averaging over 13% this year and rising to 23% in 2017. This will weigh on consumption and may even spark protests if coupled with rationalisation of the public sector wage bill. The CBE has also hiked interest rates by 300bp along with the exchange rate reform. This will help attract foreign investment into Egypt's government debt market but will also raise debt interest payments further.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Egypt Arab Rep
Egyptand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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