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Country Economic Forecasts > Eurozone

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Recent data has been mixed. Strikingly, the composite PMI fell in September to its lowest since the onset of QE, but it still does not point to a marked slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. We also think that the recent weakness may be caused by volatility in the German data and may thus overstate the degree to which service sector growth has weakened.

So we maintain our above-consensus growth assessment for the near term, with GDP growth seen slowing only slightly from 1.6% this year to 1.5% in 2017. But further ahead, we have become more pessimistic about the outlook, reflecting a view that total factor productivity growth will remain subdued. We think that Eurozone potential GDP growth is probably only just over 1%, and as a result we now forecast growth will be only about 1.4% in 2018 and 2019 and then tail off thereafter.

We expect weaker potential growth to result in a slower normalization of official interest rates and government bond yields. We now do not expect the key policy rate to be raised until 2020, even though in the near term we think the ECB will be forced to raise its inflation forecasts in December.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Eurozone

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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