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Country Economic Forecasts > Eurozone

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

The Eurozone economy appears to have remained resilient to the wide-ranging uncertainties currently confronting it from both home and abroad. The broad picture from the available data for Q4 last year suggests that the economic recovery gathered steam after steady but unspectacular quarterly gains of 0.3% in Q2 and Q3. The composite PMI rose to a five and a half year high in December and, on past form, points to a Q4 GDP rise of almost 0.5%. Meanwhile, retail sales are on track to grow by a robust 0.9% in Q4, implying that household spending has picked up. As a result, we now expect a healthy 0.5% increase in GDP in Q4.

The key concern is of course whether the surge in inflation in December, which looks set to continue in early-2017, will undermine the household spending recovery and lead to GDP growth tailing off this year. For now, however, we have made no major changes to our growth assessment - we see GDP growth of about 1.5% in both 2017 and 2018, a touch weaker than this year's upwardly revised 1.7% rise, but still well above the economy's potential growth rate.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Eurozone
Eurozoneand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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