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Country Economic Forecasts > Finland

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Revised figures showed economic growth ground to a halt in Q2, down from the 0.3% expansion reported initially. This was not surprising; we warned last month that initial GDP estimates in Finland are often subject to revision. But it was also accompanied by an upward revision to Q1, so we have kept our 2016 GDP forecast at 0.9%. For 2017, we see growth at 1.2%, also unchanged from last month.

The GDP breakdown showed that domestic demand continues to perform better than expected, with both household spending and fixed investment up strongly in Q2. But we think the current pace will be difficult to maintain as unemployment is still high and wage gains remain modest. Meanwhile, the outlook for the external sector remains dominated by the recession in Russia, which is weighing on exports and tourism. But export figures appear to be bottoming out as the Russian economy is starting to recover, so the spill-over effects should start to fade in H2 this year and into 2017.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Finland

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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