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Country Economic Forecasts > Georgia

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP growth picked up to 3.1% in Q2 while inflation fell below 2%, averting any need for further monetary tightening despite last year's widening of the fiscal deficit towards 4% of GDP. Although some slowdown is likely ahead of elections on 8 October, the outlook remains for a quickening of growth to 4.5-5% a year in 2017-19, driven by exports, stronger private investment and still-resilient consumption as remittances revive. With relative cost gains from GEL depreciation preserved, rising net exports ensure a gradual decline in the current account deficit from over 12% of GDP in 2014 and 2015.

While the 2015 FDI downturn was largely reversed in H1 this year, pre-election uncertainty has delayed the revival of domestic investment, with the coalition still not assured of retaining power despite improving economic prospects. Opposition parties remain divided, but may cite disruptions in their campaigns to challenge the fairness of the poll, which could also see a swing to newly-formed protest movements. However, the structural changes underlying faster growth are resilient to political turbulence, and a consensus behind an expanding, less regulated private sector is likely to remain.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Georgia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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