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Country Economic Forecasts > Georgia

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP growth
of 2.2% in Q3 resulted in expansion of 2.6% in Q1-Q3 2016, and we now forecast full-year
growth of about 3%. But the pace is still expected to rise to 4.5-5% in 2017-19
as improving external conditions maintain the current rebound in exports and
FDI. Inflation has stayed lower than forecast this year and turned negative in
Q3, leaving scope for faster expansion and wider fiscal deficits with only a
modest inflation upturn.

October's election raised
the parliamentary strength of the ruling party, which now faces little
non-reformist opposition and has the majority needed to make constitutional
changes. Although Georgian Dream's ascendancy carries a risk of reduced reform
pressure, erosion of institutional quality and neglect of public discontent, it
ensures medium-term pursuit of deregulation, infrastructure and business
environment improvement that are already well advanced. But external concerns
could heighten if rules are now changed to disempower the presidency before it
comes up for election in 2018. Risks are also kept comparatively high by uncertainty over the Russian
economy and Moscow's foreign policy intentions, and the need for more clarity
over the new US administration's approach to the region.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Georgia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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