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Country Economic Forecasts > Germany

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

The Q3 flash GDP release revealed that the German economy grew by just 0.2%, the weakest quarterly result since Q1 2015. While household and government spending rose, net trade and investment were a drag on GDP.

But there are some recent signs of improvement in the industrial sector, offering hope that it can pick up the growth baton from households as higher inflation starts to erode real incomes and hence spending. Initial evidence suggests the pace of growth might pick up a little in Q4. The October EC ESI reading was the best outturn since 2011 and the composite PMI picked up sharply too. But in response to the weaker than expected Q3 outturn, we have cut our 2016 GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.7%, and we continue to expect a modest slowdown to a still above-trend rate of 1.4% in 2017.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Germany
Germanyand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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