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Country Economic Forecasts > Germany

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Germany remains on track to grow at a solid pace in the near term before slowing in the medium term as capacity constraints start to bite. Business surveys appear to paint conflicting messages about the near-term outlook, but for now we think that the weak PMI survey probably paints an overly gloomy picture of growth. Meanwhile, the activity data overall suggests that the recovery may have picked up a bit of momentum in Q3 - our GDP indicator is consistent with growth of 0.4-0.5% in the quarter, compared with 0.3% in Q2.

But while our GDP growth forecasts for this year and next - at 1.8% and 1.5% - are unchanged, we have lowered our assessment of the medium- and longer-term outlook. With GDP set to rise above potential next year and our average annual potential growth forecast for the next decade or so revised down to only about 1%, we expect growth to ease sharply to just over 1% in 2018-19 and then fall below 1% in the early part of the next decade.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Germany

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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