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Country Economic Forecasts > Ghana

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

The economy looks set to gain traction this year, driven mainly by an increase in oil output as production at the TEN project begins to ramp up. That said, our projection is on the conservative side in this regard as we have not ruled out longer-than-anticipated Jubilee field maintenance scheduled for H1. However, improved government assistance and less severe Harmattan winds bode well for agricultural output this year, while lower inflation and interest rates will support demand-side activity as disposable incomes rise. GDP growth is forecast to rebound sharply to 6.3% in 2017 from an estimated 3.6% last year, and to remain above 6% over the 2018-20 period.

The December elections saw another smooth transition of power, with the NPP taking office after eight years of NDC government. The new administration's strategy to reduce taxes to support the private sector presents additional upside growth potential, but also raises the risk of slower fiscal consolidation, which may complicate relations with the IMF and in turn adversely impact investor sentiment and Ghana's ability to raise external debt. 



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ghana
Ghanaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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