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Country Economic Forecasts > Ghana

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

GDP growth in Q2 2016 slowed to 2.5%, the lowest in two years, as oil production at Tullow Oil's Jubilee field ground to a halt due to technical issues. Despite oil production at the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) development recently coming online, aggregate output now looks set to be significantly lower than expected this year as production at the Jubilee field will remain below capacity throughout H2. The agricultural and services sectors have performed well so far this year and should partly offset the decline in oil output, but even so our GDP growth forecast for 2016 has been lowered to 3.7% from 4.3% previously.

The economy looks set to gain more traction next year. The Jubilee operation may still experience some downtime during H1 2017, but oil production should still trend sharply higher overall. Lower inflation and interest rates will also support demand-side activity as the pressure on disposable income subsides, while industry will benefit from lower input costs and an improvement in electricity supply. GDP growth is forecast to rise to 5.5% in 2017 and 6.3% a year in 2018-19.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ghana
Ghanaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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