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Country Economic Forecasts > Greece

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

European officials returned to Athens this month to begin the second programme review. With the first review having agreed a substantial fiscal tightening, the hope is that the current review can be concluded quickly, clearing the way for a substantive discussion of debt relief before Christmas. We worry that such expectations are optimistic and fear that the change of focus from legislation to implementation of reforms will be where many of the programme shortfalls begin to become apparent.

Despite more than EUR2bn in government arrears being successfully cleared in the three months to September, monthly data continue to suggest that Greek GDP most likely declined again in Q3. On top of this, next year's heavily tax-based fiscal consolidation is likely to weigh on growth. As a result, we continue to expect GDP to fall by 0.5% this year before a weak recovery in 2017 enables GDP to rise by just 0.4% - well short of official forecasts.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Greece

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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