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Greek GDP fell precipitously in the final
quarter of 2016 as the uncertainty surrounding the stalled second programme
review took its toll on the economy. GDP fell by 1.2% q/q in Q4, giving a contraction
of 0.1% in 2016 overall, which will make it almost impossible for Greece to
achieve its 2017 programme growth target of 2.7%. A sharp bounce back in
imports, combined with declines in exports and government spending, were
responsible for the fall. We have therefore cut our growth forecast to just
0.5% this year. Our forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 1.5%.
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