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Country Economic Forecasts > Guatemala

  • September 2014
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 4 pages

We maintain our forecast for GDP growth of 3.4% for 2014. The expansion is supported by solid private consumption, underpinned by remittances from the US growing by nearly 10%. And this positive trend should persist as the US economy gains speed. Although headline inflation is now picking up, core inflation is still subdued - which has provided scope for interest rate cuts this year. In September the rating agency Moody's maintained its Ba1 rating of Guatemala with a stable outlook, mentioning the recent improvement in the budget deficit. And compared to other countries in the region, Guatemala's 'twin' current account and fiscal deficits are under control. However, the modest budget deficit masks the fact that the country's tax base is exceedingly small, less than 12% of GDP. So, unless this is changed, a cautious fiscal policy implies there is little or no scope for the government to spend more on improving the country's physical and social infrastructure - and this is needed to boost long-run growth prospects.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Guatemala

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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