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Country Economic Forecasts > Hungary

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 12 pages

Latest high-frequency data point to a pick-up in quarterly growth in Q4 to about 0.5%, but due to base effects the annual rate was probably only 1.2%. November industrial output points to a rise of some 1.2% in Q4, but still failing to reverse the 2.2% decline in Q3. As a result, we see industrial output rising just 0.6% in 2016, doing little to support GDP growth. Construction also continued to disappoint, falling by 0.7% in the first two months of Q4. As a result, fixed investment is likely to have fallen by almost 13% in 2016, a key drag on growth. Overall, we expect 2016 GDP growth of 1.4%, down from 3.1% in 2015.

This year, tight labour market conditions and the anticipated 15-25% minimum wage hikes will mean that consumption remains resilient in the face of sharply higher inflation. Along with a gradual pick-up in the absorption of EU funds, this will result in GDP growth accelerating to 2.3%. Fragile external demand and the threat of a rise in global protectionism remain the key downside risks to our forecast. Both monetary and fiscal policies will be supportive of growth. The central bank will maintain its dovish policy, despite steadily accelerating inflation which we expect to average 2.8% this year, up from just 0.4% in 2016.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Hungary
Hungaryand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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