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Country Economic Forecasts > Iceland

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Q2 growth was 3.7%, down from 4.4% in Q1, and the slowdown has probably continued in H2 due to election uncertainties. We forecast 2016 growth at 3.5%, before slowing to 2.5% a year in 2017-19, slightly below official expectations. Monetary policy will stay tight until remaining capital controls are lifted at end-2017, while fiscal restraint limits scope to re-expand public investment. Inflation, which rebounded strongly to 1.8% in September, will rise back to 3% in 2017 and could go even higher if strong short-term capital inflows force a premature reduction in interest rates.

The end-October election has eased political uncertainty by affirming support for the Independence Party, which is likely to form a new coalition - despite a setback for Progressive allies - after the opposition vote split between Left Green, Reform, Pirate and much-reduced Social Democratic parties. While there is a risk of instability due to new groups holding the balance of power, all parties approve the timetable for lifting capital controls. 



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Iceland
Icelandand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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