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Country Economic Forecasts > India

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

India's decision to freeze 86% of currency in circulation overnight is an unprecedented economic experiment and has overshadowed the impact of the Trump Presidency on the economy. While the implementation of the policy has been tricky so far and the government needs to focus on addressing citizens' concerns to prevent widespread social unrest, we think the policy is a step in the right direction.

Demonetization is likely to weigh on economic activity in the short term. Consumer spending in cash-based sectors is likely to suffer the most, until the flow of cash is normalized. Sectors like real estate, where 'black' money transactions are prevalent, may feel the pain for longer. Offsetting this will be the positive impact on the policy front. The easing of inflationary pressures open the window for further rate cuts, if needed. And a wider tax base in the future may allow the government to step up spending, even while adhering to fiscal consolidation plans.

Meanwhile, external conditions remain a source of concern, especially in the wake of Mr. Trump's unexpected election as US President. We estimate that Asia Pacific's short-term growth profile is likely to be around 0.1 ppt weaker than our pre-Trump baseline. But this seemingly benign outcome is largely because of the high level of uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump's policy proposals.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > India

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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