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Country Economic Forecasts > India

  • February 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 13 pages

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We estimate a substantial hit to the economy from demonetisation in the short term. But growth is expected to surge to 7.5% y/y in the last quarter of this year, from below 7% in H1 2017, as pent-up consumption demand comes through. Accordingly, we forecast FY 2017/18 GDP growth at 7.1%, up from an estimated 6.6% in FY 2016/17. With the central bank now focused on keeping inflation close to 4% on a sustained basis, the mid-point of its inflation target range, we do not expect any further interest rate cuts.

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