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Country Economic Forecasts > India

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

Data available so far on November are in line with our view that the short-term impact of 'demonetization' is likely to be significantly negative, with consumption and services feeling the maximum impact, and negative spillovers adding to the downward pressures on industrial production and investment growth. Accordingly, we expect the economy to remain on a weak footing going into H1 2017, before normalisation of the cash situation facilitates faster growth.

This has strengthened the case for a 25bp interest rate cut in Q1 2017. We do not expect the US Fed to hike until H2 2017, while the strength of the rupee real effective exchange rate over the last few years and the domestic deflationary pressures recently should give the RBI sufficient room to shift its focus to domestic risks and away from the external concerns raised at the December meeting.


Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > India
Indiaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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