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Country Economic Forecasts > Iraq

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Iraqi oil output averaged 4.6m b/d in Q4 2016, giving an average of some 4.4m b/d for the year, up 10% from the 2015 level. Under the OPEC deal at end-November, Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d to support oil prices, so some reduction is possible in early-2017. However, we remain sceptical about the chances of a lasting cut in output; weak non-oil activity, undermined by the impact of low oil prices on government spending and investment, means that GDP growth remains disappointing.

As a result, we still estimate growth at about 4% in 2016, due to high oil sector investment, but political uncertainty, a more modest rise in oil output and a slow pick-up in oil prices will see growth of only 3-3.5% a year in 2017-19.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Iraq
Iraqand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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