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Iraqi oil output averaged 4.6m b/d in Q4 2016, giving an average of some 4.4m b/d for the year, up 10% from the 2015 level. Under the OPEC deal at end-November, Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d to support oil prices, so some reduction is possible in early-2017. However, we remain sceptical about the chances of a lasting cut in output; weak non-oil activity, undermined by the impact of low oil prices on government spending and investment, means that GDP growth remains disappointing.
As a result, we still estimate growth at about 4% in 2016, due to high oil sector investment, but political uncertainty, a more modest rise in oil output and a slow pick-up in oil prices will see growth of only 3-3.5% a year in 2017-19.
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Oil And Gas