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Country Economic Forecasts > Ireland

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

GDP growth in 2015
has been revised up sharply to just over 26% from 7.8%, primarily due to statistical
quirks inflating trade and investment data. A more realistic assessment of actual
growth, excluding volatile investment in aircrafts and intangibles, is probably
in the region of 5%, in line with growth in domestic demand. And GDP fell by
2.1% on the quarter in Q1 this year, supporting our view that growth is now being
dampened by base effects. As a result, we have lowered
our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 4% from 4.8%. More
broadly, domestic demand continues to recover and the all-important export
sector continues to benefit from reasonable global demand and the lower euro, notwithstanding
the uncertain international climate. Over the medium term
we expect growth to average around 2.5%.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Ireland

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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