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Country Economic Forecasts > Italy

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 10 pages

GDP grew by 0.3% on the quarter in Q3, in line with our most recent estimate and the Eurozone average for Q3. The full breakdown of the national accounts will only be available in a couple of weeks, but we know already that domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, while net trade was a drag on activity. The indicators for Q4 so far are mixed. Surveys have been quite soft, with the composite PMI edging down recently. However, the positive Q3 number, combined with some upward revision to the Q1 figure this year, supports our view that Italy is in line to expand by 0.9% in 2016 as a whole, after 0.6% in 2015.

Our growth forecast for next year is similar to that for 2016, but it is conditional on the referendum passing. If the referendum does not pass, Italy is likely to see a period of political gridlock, but contrary to other commentators we believe that a government led by the Five Star Movement represents only a very small 'tail' risk. If there is a 'no' vote, GDP growth in 2017 might slow from 0.9% in our current baseline to around 0.5%. Investment would be dampened by a drop in confidence, while lower nominal growth and higher bond yields would mean deteriorating fiscal metrics.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Italy

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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