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Country Economic Forecasts > Italy

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 12 pages

After the referendum and Renzi's resignation, a new government has been formed from the existing parliament. Paolo Gentiloni, foreign minister in Renzi's cabinet, is the new Prime Minister, and the composition of the new cabinet is very similar to Renzi's team. We expect the new government to focus on harmonising the electoral system. It is possible that once the new electoral system is in place there will be elections. But designing new electoral laws could take up most of 2017.

Meanwhile, the banking situation is far from resolved and Italy needs a strong government in the months ahead to deal with this significant problem and its repercussions for the wider economy. This was clear when, at the end of 2016, the ECB told the Italian government that Monte dei Paschi bank would need an extra EUR8.8bn of capital.

Recent indicators on the state of the economy are mixed. The manufacturing PMI for December reached its highest level since June 2016, but the labour market has struggled to make further progress in recent months, and inflation has moved into positive territory.

Against this background, we see the economy growing by only 0.6% in 2017 after an estimated 0.9% last year. We believe that uncertainty following the 'no' vote at the referendum will continue to have some economic impact in early 2017. However, a surprisingly quick fix to the political situation and relatively calm financial markets probably means some upside risk to our growth forecast.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Italy

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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