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Country Economic Forecasts > Jordan

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The economy continues to show resilience despite the numerous external shocks. The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have undermined activity through disruption to trade routes, plunging tourism, lower business confidence and the fiscal costs related to hosting some 1.3m refugees.  In Q1, GDP still grew by 2.3% y/y, albeit the weakest for four quarters, benefitting from very low oil prices. Financial and business services and transport and communications sectors were notably strong.

Notwithstanding a continuing difficult regional environment, we expect growth to average close to 3% this year and then 3.5% in 2017. Economic confidence is being boosted by the progress made in strengthening the fiscal and external positions.

In addition, the economy is likely to receive a boost from the IMF's approval of a three-year programme which aims to reduce public debt and drive inclusive growth higher. Some US$723m has been approved, including US$72m for immediate disbursement, with the increased prospect of donor support from the international community in line with promises made at the London Conference in February.

This month's parliamentary elections resulted in the re-appointment of PM Hani al-Mulki who, with his yet-to-be formed cabinet, will continue to implement IMF-supported reforms.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Jordan

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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