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Country Economic Forecasts > Kenya

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Latest data show continued momentum in early-2016, with GDP growing 5.9% in Q1 helped by solid growth in many sectors and recovery in tourism. As a result, we have raised our 2016 growth forecast to 5.6%, the same as last year, from 5.4% in May. This reflects the faster-than-expected recovery in the tourism sector, while high public spending will continue to stimulate industry.

The 2016/17 budget was surprisingly expansionary. Expenditure is budgeted to increase by nearly 23% to around US$22.4bn, with the fiscal deficit officially seen rising to 9.3% of GDP. The budget stance is a little surprising given recent commitments towards fiscal consolidation; but for now we expect a rather lower deficit, more in line with the latest medium-term fiscal strategy. Progress on fiscal consolidation will be critical to restore credibility in the government's financial management and to allay investor concerns over macroeconomic fundamentals.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Kenya

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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