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Country Economic Forecasts > Kuwait

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Recent comments by Kuwait's oil minister that compliance by OPEC members with proposed crude production cuts will be 'big' reinforce our view that Kuwait will implement its share of the group's 1.2 mbpd cuts in full - initially at least. But although the deal helped lift oil prices to above $55pb in early January, we expect the agreement to be undermined by non-compliance elsewhere and for oil output to climb again in H2. Kuwait's oil sector GDP is forecast to drop some 1.7% in 2017.

Meanwhile, the government continues to push ahead with fiscal reforms to reduce the budget deficit and interest rates are expected to rise further this year alongside hikes by the US Fed. However, financial conditions will benefit from a sizeable sovereign bond issue, an easing pace of austerity and a steady flow of infrastructure projects requiring private funding. Non-oil GDP growth will edge up to 2.5%, but growth including the oil sector will still drop to a seven-year low of 0.3%.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Kuwait
Kuwaitand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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