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Country Economic Forecasts > Latvia

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

Private investment and consumption picked up in H2 2016, but full-year GDP growth is now estimated at just 0.9%, well below initial forecasts as slack Eurozone demand cut export growth and lower EU funding saw investment fall 10%. With industrial exports now recovering and the government set to borrow more for investment, growth is forecast to move back towards 3% this year and then just below 4% in 2018-19. This will be accompanied by modest revival of inflation, to 1.8% by 2019 (still close to the Eurozone average) from 1.2% in November 2016.

Downside risks arise from Russia's unclear intentions in the region, and the ambivalent stance of the new US administration towards NATO. Other uncertainties include Russia's plans to run down its Baltic oil transit trade, a likely tapering of the forestry exports that promoted recovery in 2010-15 and the difficulty of closing the present fiscal deficit, which could lead to faster inflation and a wider external deficit towards 2020. Despite this, faster medium-term GDP growth will be underpinned by recovery of domestic demand, allied to ongoing cost advantages within the Eurozone.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Latvia

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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