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Country Economic Forecasts > Lebanon

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Lebanon continues to be impacted by the Syrian conflict and by deep sectarian divides. The protracted political crisis sees a country still without a president, legislative elections postponed, and key reforms and policies delayed. Still, secondary indicators of activity such as bank lending, tourist arrivals and consumer confidence remain consistent with GDP growth of around 1% this year, down from 1.5% last year.

The twin fiscal and current account deficits remain a concern, set to widen this year to 9.2% of GDP and 18.4% of GDP, respectively, with the benefits from lower oil costs offset by a combination of the impact of political factors and war on exports, and the burden of hosting some 1.5mn Syrian refugees. But risks to stability are mitigated by still high levels of foreign currency reserves, the high proportion of domestic government debt and the continued willingness of a resilient local banking sector to purchase and rollover the debt.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Lebanon

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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