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Country Economic Forecasts > Lebanon

  • February 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 8 pages

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The new unity government formed on December 18 under PM Saad Hariri has been a boost to political stability and an important step towards improving political effectiveness. But despite some modest successes there is as yet no agreement on a new budget, and more immediately no agreement on an election law that is required to ensure new parliamentary elections go ahead this May. On the back of improved decision-making and better political stability, we expect that stronger investment growth and higher exports will drive GDP growth to some 2.5% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, from 1.5% last year. But there are quite large downside and upside risks to this forecast related to the political climate.

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