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Country Economic Forecasts > Libya

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 4 pages

Politically, the Government of National Accord (GNA) remains hamstrung by the House of Representatives in Tobruk refusing to recognise its authority. Economically, the GNA has clashed with the central bank over the latter's reluctance to release funds it needs to govern effectively. And militarily, the GNA is still without a well-equipped force needed to stamp its authority. Thus, on all sides the internationally-recognised government is beset by problems.

Oil production is now rising after the Libyan National Army seized key oil terminals in September, and force majeure was lifted on exports from these terminals. Production subsequently increased from 270,000 b/d in August to 528,000 b/d in October and could top 600,000 b/d by end year. This late improvement means that output this year should average around 400,000 b/d, only marginally lower than in 2015. However, the impact of weaker oil prices means that GDP is expected to contract by around 3% this year. A return to growth, at around 19%, is forecast for 2017 after four successive years of economic decline.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Libya
Libyaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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