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Country Economic Forecasts > Lithuania

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Our forecast for GDP growth in 2016 has been cut to 2.6% due to slower Q2 expansion, but growth is still seen at about 3.2% in 2017-19 as investment picks up again alongside buoyant consumption. The pace will slow towards the end of the forecast period as the labour market tightens, lifting inflation back to 2%, and as strong domestic demand widens the external deficit towards 3% of GDP. While this will be largely covered by rising FDI, it leaves the expansion vulnerable to any further financial disruption in the EU or US economies.

Modest inflation this year (just 0.5% in August) has shielded producers and borrowers from the risk of falling prices, but indicates pressure on costs from persistent wage growth, which has been running at over 6% this year. Wages are now rising faster than productivity due to emerging skill shortages.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Lithuania

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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