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Country Economic Forecasts > Lithuania

  • January 2017
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 7 pages

A delay to the expected pick-up in public and private investment, which held down 2016 GDP growth to about 2%, also eroded previously solid support for the two main parties and brought a new centre-left group to power in October elections. The need for a coalition with one of the previous ruling parties will prevent the new government veering too far from policies to contain the budget and current account deficits, so the outlook for a rebound to 3%+ growth in 2017-19 with modestly higher inflation remains in place. But risks have risen due to greater uncertainty over labour cost and public consumption restraints, and external risks as the new US leadership settles in.

Gradual quickening of growth in 2017-18 will be driven by recovery of state investment as EU funding returns to previous levels (after a gap between programmes in 2015-16), and by consumption strength even after wage increases fall back into line with productivity. Private investment, held down in 2016 by Eurozone, external security and domestic political uncertainties, is set for firmer recovery as EU-financed projects regain momentum. However, ongoing tensions with Russia may continue to restrain business confidence in 2017, and has diverted more budget funds towards defence.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Lithuania

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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