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Country Economic Forecasts > Morocco

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Morocco's economic performance is forecast to improve from 2017, following a lacklustre performance this year (when growth is estimated at just 1%). This pick-up will be on the back of an expected recovery in agriculture and improved prospects for both the industrial and services sectors. GDP growth is forecast at 3.7% in 2017 and then 4% a year in 2018-19. On the external accounts, the current account deficit is forecast to widen over the medium term due to higher global oil prices and consequently a higher import bill. Nevertheless, strong FDI inflows will support foreign reserves and the balance of payments position.

The government has already made notable progress in terms of fiscal consolidation, in part thanks to low international oil prices which have aided a substantial decline in the subsidy bill. We expect the budget deficit to continue narrowing over the medium term due to the implementation of pension reforms.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Morocco
Moroccoand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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