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Country Economic Forecasts > Burma

  • July 2015
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 4 pages

In the four years Burma's current regime has been in power, it has made rapid progress in modernising and opening up the economy. GDP grew by an estimated 7.7% in the fiscal year to March 2015 and we forecast expansion of more than 8% in 2015/16 and 2016/17, driven by robust growth in construction and services as well as surging foreign investment, particularly into the mining sector. The IMF has approved the progress on reform and believes that Burma is reasonably well-placed to experience a lengthy period of fast growth. However, the risks remain high. Democratic elections will be held in November for the first time since 1990, but the constitution has clauses that may make it hard for Aung San Suu Kyi, the popular opposition NLD leader, to become president and parliament has blocked all efforts to soften it, raising worries about how democratic the system will actually be. This is likely to make investors more cautious. Additionally, China is a key trade and FDI partner for Burma and the slowdown there has dampened activity across the region.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Burma

The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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