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Country Economic Forecasts > Burma

  • July 2015
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 4 pages

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In the four years Burma's current regime has been in power, it has made rapid progress in modernising and opening up the economy. GDP grew by an estimated 7.7% in the fiscal year to March 2015 and we forecast expansion of more than 8% in 2015/16 and 2016/17, driven by robust growth in construction and services as well as surging foreign investment, particularly into the mining sector. The IMF has approved the progress on reform and believes that Burma is reasonably well-placed to experience a lengthy period of fast growth. However, the risks remain high. Democratic elections will be held in November for the first time since 1990, but the constitution has clauses that may make it hard for Aung San Suu Kyi, the popular opposition NLD leader, to become president and parliament has blocked all efforts to soften it, raising worries about how democratic the system will actually be. This is likely to make investors more cautious. Additionally, China is a key trade and FDI partner for Burma and the slowdown there has dampened activity across the region.

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