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Country Economic Forecasts > New Zealand

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

Q2 GDP data were much stronger than expected, with the economy growing 1.2% on the quarter after an upwardly-revised 0.7% in Q1. Domestically, both consumption and investment were key drivers. Low interest rates and rising real incomes are supporting households, with consumer spending up 1.9% q/q in Q2. Investment continues to be led by residential construction, which rose 6% q/q, but there are also signs that firms are looking to increase capacity. Exports were somewhat mixed, with goods rising sharply but services dropping back. The challenging external environment, particularly for New Zealand's dairy and meat farmers, will limit export volume growth this year to 4.2%.

Although the economy is performing strongly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2% in August and signalled further monetary loosening at its next meeting in November. The Bank is concerned about the global environment and the appreciation of the NZD, which has dragged inflation down to near-zero. However, with the economy growing robustly we do not expect any further loosening after November, as we expect wage growth and inflation to pick up over the next year.

Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > New Zealand
New Zealandand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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