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  5. > Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 162 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term,underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over thenext decade. However, production growth will be limited by declining investment funds and continuedfallout from the corruption scandal. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our viewthat the above-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstreamsegments due to weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatoryenvironment.

The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

- On January 12, Brazilian national oil company (NOC) Petrobras announced it had approved furtherreductions to its 2015-2019 Business and Management Plan (BMP), supporting our previously heldview. This revision, revealing the third iteration of the five-year plan, represents a 17.5% decline from theversion released in October of 2015 and a 24.5% reduction from the original version released in June2015. These adjustments underscore the extent to which sustained market weakness has undercut thecompany's ability to execute its long-term plans.

- The start up of Petrobras's Cidade de Maricá floating, production, storage and offloading unit onFebruary 16 is the first of three large-scale developments anticipated to begin in 2016. Located within theLula Field in the presalt later of the deepwater Santos Basin, the project is expected to generate up to150,000 bbl of oil along with 6mn cubic metres (mcm) of associated natural gas per day.

- Production growth of natural gas in Brazil will experience an uptick in 2016 but will be unable tomaintain this trend through 2020. With NOC Petrobras under severe pressure to cut costs and operatewithin its existing cashflow, we believe projects included its five-year BMP will be subject to continueddelays, limiting upside in the latter half of the decade.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves 14
Table: Breakdown Of Offshore Reserves 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) 32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Upstream Production - Gas 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 37
Refining 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes 41
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 45
Gas Consumption 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 49
Trade - Oil 50
Crude Trade Forecasts 50
Latest Updates 50
Structural Trends 50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 53
Refined Fuels Forecasts 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 58
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 58
Industry Risk Reward Index 59
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 59
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 59
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape 60
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 61
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics 64
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 67
Market Overview 70
Brazil Energy Market Overview 70
Overview/State Role 70
Licensing And Regulation 71
Licensing Rounds 72
International Energy Relations 75
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 78
Oil Refineries 78
Table: Refineries In Brazil 78
Service Stations 83
Oil Terminals/Ports 83
Oil Pipelines 83
LNG Terminals 83
Gas Pipelines 84
Competitive Landscape 87
Summary 87
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector 89
Company Profile 90
BP Brasil 90
Chevron Brasil 94
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 97
Grupo Ultra 99
OGpar 103
Petrobras 107
Repsol 119
Shell Brasil 123
Statoil do Brasil 129
Other Summaries 134
Regional Overview 144
Latin America Overview 144
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2013-2024 153
Glossary 155
Table: Glossary Of Terms 155
Methodology 157
Industry Forecast Methodology 157
Source 159
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 159
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 161
Table: Weighting 162

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