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Country Economic Forecasts > Nigeria

  • December 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The Nigerian economy performed dismally in Q1-Q3 this year, and high-frequency indicators suggest that Q4 will not be much better. Apart from positive base effects, the performance of the economy in 2017 will ultimately depend on government policy decisions and the effectiveness of policy implementation. The recent announcement that the 2017 budget will be presented to parliament this month lowers the risk of a repeat of the severe delays experienced in 2016, and a larger proportion of envisaged expenditure being dedicated to capital projects is also a positive sign.

While recent signals point to the opposite, our baseline still sees the CBN loosening its grip on the NGN once price pressures start to dissipate next year. A more liberal stance on the currency should attract increased FDI and portfolio inflows, while external lenders will also be more willing to fund the fiscal shortfall. We also expect the frequency of sabotage attacks in the Niger Delta to decline slightly next year due to increased policing and more regular engagement between militants and the government. We now see GDP falling by 1.8% in 2016, compared with a previous forecast of a 1.6% contraction. Growth should recover to 1.5% in 2017 and then around 3% a year in 2018-19.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Nigeria
Nigeriaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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