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Country Economic Forecasts > Nigeria

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Oxford Economics
  • -
  • 5 pages

The Nigerian economy fared even worse in Q3 than in the previous quarter, with GDP contracting 2.3% year-on-year compared with a 2.2% fall in Q2. Agriculture continued to perform well, expanding by 4.5% in Q3, but industrial activity again shrank, led down by oil and mining which contracted by 21.6%. The services sector fell 1.2% in Q3, with a solid rebound in financial activity offset by poor performances in trade and real estate.

Unfortunately, the same problems that plagued the country at the start of the year have still not been addressed. The planned ramp-up in fiscal spending is progressing slower than anticipated. The CBN's move to adopt a 'flexible' exchange rate regime has also not worked and forex liquidity remains extremely tight. Meanwhile, militancy in the Delta region is escalating again, dimming hopes of a rebound in oil activity and hence economic activity in Q4. We now see GDP falling by 1.6% in 2016, compared with our previous forecast of a 1.4% decline. But growth should still recover to 1.5% in 2017 and then an average of about 3% a year in 2018-19.



Table Of Contents

Country Economic Forecasts > Nigeria
Nigeriaand#58;


The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic
Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.

  1. Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the
    main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
  2. Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical
    data and 4 years of forecast data for the followingand#58;
    • Domestic demand
    • Private consumption
    • Fixed investment
    • Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
    • Government consumption
    • Exports of goods and services
    • Imports of goods and services
    • Unemployment
    • Consumer prices
    • Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
    • Government budget (% of GDP)
    • Short-term interest rates (%)
    • Long-term interest rates (%)
    • Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
    • Exchange rate (vs. euro)
  3. Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the
    most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the
    country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
  4. Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant
    to the time period covered. These could include such topics asand#58;
    • Contributions to GDP growth
    • Monthly industrial output
    • Business and consumer confidence
    • Unemployment rate
    • Retail sales
    • Prices and earnings
    • Consumption and investment
    • Government balance and debt
    • GDP and industrial production
    • Monetary policy and bond yields
  5. Background Information on the country
    • One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors
      that determine the country's current position
  6. Key Facts on the country
    • Map of the country
    • Key political facts
    • Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980
    • Structure of GDP by output - latest year
    • Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
    • Corruption perceptions index- latest year
    • Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990
    • Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year
    • Composition of goods andamp; services exports - latest year

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